Of 70 native species examined for the Chicago Wilderness region, suitable habitat for 15 of them was projected to decline under both climate scenarios. One species projected to decline in habitat suitability, black cherry, is one of the most common species in the Chicago region according to the Regional Tree Census. Other common species projected to decline are white oak, eastern white pine, quaking aspen, and paper birch.
Thirty-two species were projected to have an increase in suitable habitat in the Chicago Wilderness region. Southern species, such as mockernut hickory, blackgum, and sycamore, are projected to experience large gains in suitable habitat. Many common bottomland species in the area, such as silver maple, hackberry, and cottonwood are also projected to experience increases in suitable habitat.
Habitat was projected to become newly suitable under one or both scenarios for fifteen species. A few species are already planted in the area, including Kentucky coffeetree, Ohio buckeye, Eastern redbud, and chinkapin oak. However, none of the species are commonly found.
Species distribution modeling for native species suggests that suitable habitat may decrease for 15 primarily northern species and increase or become newly suitable for 47 species in the Chicago area.
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