Projected decreases in precipitation in late summer and fall may increase the frequency or extent of drought in small stream riparian forest ecosystems.

Potential changes to the precipitation regime could intensify peak stream flow and shift the timing to earlier in the spring. Reduced precipitation in the summer and fall would result in drier conditions, increasing the potential for late-summer drought. Moisture deficits have the potential to create dry vegetation conditions late in the growing season, stressing hydrophilic seedlings and supporting wildfire conditions. Drought-stressed trees may be more susceptible to diseases such as thousand cankers and elm yellows, and insect pests such as hemlock woolly adelgid.